{"id":3466,"date":"2023-02-05T18:44:43","date_gmt":"2023-02-06T02:44:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sirknightj.com\/blog\/?p=3466"},"modified":"2023-02-06T01:36:12","modified_gmt":"2023-02-06T09:36:12","slug":"ahr-2023-red-dream-5-star-rates-fire-emblem-heroes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sirknightj.com\/blog\/2023\/02\/05\/ahr-2023-red-dream-5-star-rates-fire-emblem-heroes\/","title":{"rendered":"AHR 2023 Red Dream 5-Star Rates – Fire Emblem: Heroes"},"content":{"rendered":"

It’s finally happening! The event that I’ve been looking forward to over this past year. I began saving orbs since about November, and am currently (as of writing this article) at about 1,050. In this article, I’ll talk about my predictions for the Non-Red units that will win in the A Hero Rises (AHR) 2023 event. In case you’d like to see my predictions for the red units, you can find that here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Who is the Fire Emblem: Heroes playerbase currently voting for?<\/h3>\n

The Fire Emblem: Heroes official twitter released a list of the top heroes as of the end of the first day of voting<\/a>. Reddit user Phoenixmaster1<\/a> created a visualization because a plain-text list is a bit boring to look at. It is sorted alphabetically.<\/p>\n

\"r\/FireEmblemHeroes<\/a>As we can see from the graphic, 8 out of 16 of the top-voted units are red, and the rest are split evenly between Blue and Colorless.<\/p>\n

For some reason, Edelgard: Hegemon Husk is still here despite losing in last year’s AHR event. The colorless Edelgard made it to the top 8 but lost to Azura: Hatari Duet in the first round.<\/p>\n

How big of an impact are summoning rates affected if a non-red unit is on the banner?<\/h3>\n

Short answer: a lot.<\/p>\n

Using this following site: https:\/\/www.fullyconcentrated.net\/fehstatsim\/<\/a>, we can calculate approximately how many orbs it would cost on average per 5-star unit.<\/p>\n

The Herofest banners from the past years have been a standard 6% banner (3% split evenly among the focus units, and 3% for non-focus units).<\/p>\n

Here is a table with how many orbs it will take to summon some focus units. The following assumes no focus charges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Banner Type<\/strong><\/td>\nMedian orbs, any focus unit, sniping only focus colors<\/strong><\/td>\nMedian Orbs, Red focus unit, sniping only Red<\/strong><\/td>\nMedian Orbs, X focus unit, sniping only X<\/strong><\/td>\nMedian Orbs, Any +10 Red Focus*, sniping only Red<\/strong><\/td>\n90th Percentile, Any +10 Red Focus*, sniping only Red<\/b><\/td>\n99th Percentile, Any +10 Red Focus*, sniping only Red<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3 Red, 1 Blue<\/td>\n53<\/td>\n45<\/td>\nX=Blue: 122<\/td>\n1309<\/td>\n1739<\/td>\n2124<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3 Red, 1 Colorless<\/td>\n53<\/td>\n45<\/td>\nX=Colorless: 119<\/td>\n1308<\/td>\n1737<\/td>\n2113<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4 Red<\/td>\n34<\/td>\n34<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n1268<\/td>\n1660<\/td>\n1997<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

*Assuming 10 copies<\/strong> (as we will get 1 from the spark, and we can spark all 4).<\/p>\n

Looking at the numbers in the table, if you’re looking at it from the orb value perspective, if the AHR banner for 3 Red and 1 non-Red wins, then we get less 5-stars per orb. It is actually more efficient to outright ignore that off-red unit and strictly snipe for only red orbs to maximize the amount of 5-stars obtained.<\/p>\n

You may think “eh, there’s not much of a difference”. However, this is assuming that we are sniping only red. If you choose both red and another color, see what happens below<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Note that we’re using medians<\/em> and not averages<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Below, you can find the charts with all the data obtained from the fullyconcentrated site<\/a>:<\/p>\n

<\/span>3 Red, 1 Blue Charts<\/div>
\n
\"sirknightj_any_focus_3_1_0_0\"<\/a>
3 red, 1 blue. Sniping red and blue only.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"sirknightj_any_red_3_1_0_0\"<\/a>
3 red, 1 blue. Sniping red only.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"sirknightj_any_blue_3_1_0_0\"<\/a>
3 red, 1 blue. Sniping blue only.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"10_red_3_1_0_0_sirknightj\"<\/a>
3 red, 1 blue, 10 copies of any red. Sniping red only.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"10_any_focus_3_1_0_0_sirknightj\"<\/a>
3 red, 1 blue, 10 copies of any focus unit. Sniping focus colors only.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div><\/div>\n
<\/span>3 Red, 1 Colorless Charts<\/div>
\n
\"sirknightj_any_focus_3_0_0_1\"<\/a>
3 red, 1 colorless. Sniping red and colorless only.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"sirknightj_any_red_3_0_0_1\"<\/a>
3 red, 1 colorless. Sniping red only.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"sirknightj_any_colorless_3_0_0_1\"<\/a>
3 red, 1 colorless. Sniping colorless only.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"10_red_3_0_0_1_sirknightj\"<\/a>
3 red, 1 colorless, 10 copies of any red. Sniping red only.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"10_any_focus_3_0_0_1_sirknightj\"<\/a>
3 red, 1 colorless, 10 copies of any focus unit. Sniping focus colors only.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div><\/div>\n

Why voting for non-red is a bad idea<\/h4>\n

If there is 1 Blue or 1 Colorless unit on the banner, then the rates for getting that non-red unit on this AHR banner is actually identical to sniping that color on the New Heroes banner or Special Heroes banner that it came on.<\/p>\n

For Blue, 122 orbs<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

For Colorless, 119 orbs<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

This means that pulling those non-red heroes could have been done on their original debut or rerun banners at the same rate as they would have shown up on the AHR banner. You could make the same argument in the same way with all the red heroes as well. However, the thing is that the AHR banner will most likely have at least 2 red units on it. The advantage we can get for reducing the orb cost per 5-star unit is by making the units color-share. It’s extremely unlikely that there will be any color-sharing blue or color-sharing colorless units on this banner. Repeating the same point from above, it is sadly more efficient to outright ignore the off-red units entirely and strictly snipe for only red orbs to maximize the amount of 5-stars obtained.<\/p>\n

If a non-red unit is on the banner, should you summon for them?<\/h4>\n

Here’s another table showing how inefficient<\/strong> it is to choose the other color along with red:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Banner<\/strong><\/td>\nMedian Orbs, Any +10 Red Focus*, sniping only Red<\/strong><\/td>\n90th Percentile, Any +10 Red Focus*, sniping only Red<\/strong><\/td>\nMedian Orbs, Any +10 focus unit*, sniping both focus colors<\/strong><\/td>\n90th Percentile, Any +10 focus unit*, sniping both focus colors<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3 Red, 1 Blue<\/td>\n1309<\/td>\n1739<\/td>\n1981<\/td>\n2600<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3 Red, 1 Colorless<\/td>\n1308<\/td>\n1738<\/td>\n1951<\/td>\n2555<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4 Red<\/td>\n1268<\/td>\n1660<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

*Rates are to obtain 10 copies of the hero, as we can get the 11th from the spark.<\/p>\n

<\/span>Charts for regular new heroes banners<\/div>
\n

\"sirknightj_any_blue_1_1_1_1\"<\/a> \"sirknightj_any_colorless_1_1_1_1\"<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n

Red dream summoning rates<\/h4>\n

If 4 red units win AHR, then here’s what the summoning rates would look like.<\/p>\n

\"sirknightj_any_red_4_0_0_0\"<\/a>
4 red banner. Only sniping red.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"10_red_4_0_0_0_sirknightj\"<\/a>
4 red, 10 copies. Sniping red only.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The median is 33 orbs per 5-star focus if it were an all-green banner for this year. That’s very good!<\/p>\n

\"sirknightj_any_green_0_0_4_0\"<\/a>
4 green banner. Sniping only green.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Hopefully this article convinced you to vote for a red unit for this A Hero Rises (AHR) event!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It’s finally happening! The event that I’ve been looking forward to over this past year. I began saving orbs since about November, and am currently (as of writing this article) at about 1,050. In this article, I’ll talk about my predictions for the Non-Red units that will win in the A Hero Rises (AHR) 2023 … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3492,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[19,44],"tags":[],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sirknightj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3466"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sirknightj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sirknightj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sirknightj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sirknightj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3466"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.sirknightj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3466\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3505,"href":"https:\/\/www.sirknightj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3466\/revisions\/3505"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sirknightj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3492"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sirknightj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3466"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sirknightj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3466"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sirknightj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3466"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}