AHR 2023 Red Dream 5-Star Rates – Fire Emblem: Heroes


It’s finally happening! The event that I’ve been looking forward to over this past year. I began saving orbs since about November, and am currently (as of writing this article) at about 1,050. In this article, I’ll talk about my predictions for the Non-Red units that will win in the A Hero Rises (AHR) 2023 event. In case you’d like to see my predictions for the red units, you can find that here.

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A Hero Rises 2022 Summoning

The hyped banner was finally released a few days ago. I couldn’t resist my urge to summon. So, I summoned on the banner on the first day on 3/22. Was the banner as good as what people said? Here’s my status just before I started summoning on the banner: 906 visible orbs, 347 orbs on FEH bank and 279 orbs on maps that I haven’t finished – total 1,532 orbs that I can potentially use.

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1300 orbs vs 2022 AHR Summons

The AHR Banner is here!

A few days ago, I summoned on the AHR 2022 banner. I spent a lot of the orbs that I’ve been saving up over the past few months.

A user by the name of Eldervi has done the math and created a cool infographic here. The average orb cost per 5-star unit is 19 orbs. This means that with my 1,300 orbs, I should be expecting somewhere around 68 5-star units with average luck.

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Analyzing my 2021 Fire Emblem Heroes’ summoning result

Have you ever wondered about your summoning result in FEH overall? On some banners, you may be very lucky, but on some other banners, you may not. But overall, how did you do? In theory, the more summoning you do, the more likely that the result will average-out over time. However, will that be the case in my situation – where I only summon sporadically on few banners?

I wish FEH has some kind of built-in features that keep track all of various summoning stats. Unfortunately, the game has none of that feature. I think if they have this kind of feature, many players will have their mind blown when they see their stats.

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FEH Summoner: How lucky are you?


Since I got tired of the Gacha (translate: got salty) in Fire Emblem Heroes, I thought I’d spend a bit of my time to investigate the probability and the statistics of my luck on Gacha itself.

There are some summon simulator tool out there that tells us how many orbs we need to summon any 5 star heroes, focus heroes, etc. It even tells us the average orbs needed, median, 90th percentile, etc.

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